Identification_Information: Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Suleimani, E.N. Originator: Nicolsky, D.J. Originator: Koehler, R.D. Originator: Freymueller, J.T. Originator: Macpherson, A.E. Publication_Date: 2016 Title: Tsunami inundation maps for King Cove and Cold Bay communities, Alaska Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: report and digital data Series_Information: Series_Name: Report of Investigation Issue_Identification: RI 2016-1 Publication_Information: Publication_Place: Fairbanks, Alaska, United States Publisher: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Other_Citation_Details: 73 p., 2 sheets, scale 1:12,500. Online_Linkage: http://dx.doi.org/10.14509/29565 Description: Abstract: Potential tsunami hazards for the Alaska Peninsula communities of King Cove and Cold Bay were evaluated by numerically modeling the extent of inundation from tsunami waves generated by hypothetical earthquake sources and taking into account historical observations. Worst-case hypothetical scenarios are defined by analyzing the tsunami dynamics related to various slip distributions along the Aleutian megathrust. Our results show that the worst-case scenarios for King Cove and Cold Bay are thrust earthquakes in the western Alaska Peninsula region, with magnitudes ranging from Mw 8.9 to Mw 9.3, which have their greatest slip at 10-20 km (6-12 mi) depth. We also consider Tohoku-type ruptures and an outer-rise rupture in the western Alaska Peninsula area. Results presented here are intended to provide guidance to local emergency management agencies in tsunami inundation assessment, evacuation planning, and public education to mitigate future tsunami hazards. Purpose: Results presented here are intended to provide guidance to local emergency management agencies in tsunami inundation assessment, evacuation planning, and public education to mitigate future tsunami hazards. Supplemental_Information: >border: Outline of the study area. >max-flow-depth: Raster images depicting maximum composite flow depths over dry land. Pixel values provide the modeled depth (in meters) of maximum inundation. For each grid point, the pixel value provides the modeled depth of water (in meters) over previously dry land, representing the maximum depth value of all calculated tsunami scenarios. >max-inundation-line: Estimated, "maximum credible scenario" inundation line(s) that encompasses the maximum extent of flooding based on model simulation of all credible source scenarios and historical observations. The "maximum credible scenario" inundation lines are intended to be utilized as a basis for local tsunami hazard planning and development of evacuation maps. >scenarios: Collection of shapefiles that depict the modeled potential maximum inundation by tectonic waves for each modeled scenario. Detailed information about each scenario can be found in the accompanying report. >time-series-points: To help emergency management personnel assess tsunami hazards, we supplement the inundation maps with the time series plots of the modeled water level and velocity dynamics at some on-land and some offshore locations in the communities. The plots are provided in the appendices of the report. These shapefiles provide the location of each time series point. Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Range_of_Dates/Times: Beginning_Date: 2012 Ending_Date: 2016 Currentness_Reference: publication date Status: Progress: complete Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: None planned Spatial_Domain: Bounding_Coordinates: West_Bounding_Coordinate: -162.748317 East_Bounding_Coordinate: -162.250259 North_Bounding_Coordinate: 55.255742 South_Bounding_Coordinate: 55.015644 Keywords: Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category Theme_Keyword: geoscientificInformation Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Theme_Keyword: Active Fault Theme_Keyword: Coastal Theme_Keyword: Coastal and River Hazards Theme_Keyword: Earthquake Theme_Keyword: Earthquake Related Hazards Theme_Keyword: Emergency Preparedness Theme_Keyword: Engineering Geology Theme_Keyword: Fault Displacement Theme_Keyword: Faulting Theme_Keyword: Flood Theme_Keyword: Geologic Hazards Theme_Keyword: Hazards Theme_Keyword: Inundation Theme_Keyword: Land Subsidence Theme_Keyword: Landslide Theme_Keyword: Modeling Theme_Keyword: Raster Image Theme_Keyword: Seismic Gap Theme_Keyword: Seismic Hazards Theme_Keyword: Tsunami Place: Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Place_Keyword: Alaska Peninsula Place_Keyword: Aleutian Islands Place_Keyword: Cold Bay Place_Keyword: King Cove Access_Constraints: This report, map, and/or dataset is available directly from the State of Alaska, Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (see contact information below). Use_Constraints: This dataset includes results of numerical modeling of earthquake-generated tsunami waves for a specific community. Modeling was completed using the best information and tsunami modeling software available at the time of analysis. They are numerical solutions and, while they are believed to be accurate, their ultimate accuracy during an actual tsunami will depend on the specifics of earth deformations, on-land construction, tide level, and other parameters at the time of the tsunami. Actual areas of inundation may differ from areas shown in this dataset. Landslide tsunami sources may not be included in the modeling due to unknown potential impact of such events on a given community; please refer to accompanying report for more information on tsunami sources used for this study. The limits of inundation shown should only be used as a general guideline for emergency planning and response action in the event of a major tsunamigenic earthquake. These results are not intended for any other use, including land-use regulation or actuarial purposes. Any hard copies or published datasets utilizing these datasets shall clearly indicate their source. If the user has modified the data in any way, the user is obligated to describe the types of modifications the user has made. The user specifically agrees not to misrepresent these datasets, nor to imply that changes made by the user were approved by the State of Alaska, Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys. The State of Alaska makes no express or implied warranties (including warranties for merchantability and fitness) with respect to the character, functions, or capabilities of the electronic data or products or their appropriateness for any user's purposes. In no event will the State of Alaska be liable for any incidental, indirect, special, consequential, or other damages suffered by the user or any other person or entity whether from the use of the electronic services or products or any failure thereof or otherwise. In no event will the State of Alaska's liability to the Requestor or anyone else exceed the fee paid for the electronic service or product. Point_of_Contact: Contact_Information: Contact_Organization_Primary: Contact_Organization: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Contact_Position: GIS Manager Contact_Address: Address_Type: mailing and physical Address: 3354 College Rd City: Fairbanks State_or_Province: AK Postal_Code: 99709-3707 Country: USA Contact_Voice_Telephone: 907-451-5020 Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: dggsgis@alaska.gov Hours_of_Service: 8 am to 4:30 pm, Monday through Friday, except State holidays Data_Set_Credit: This project received support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under Reimbursable Services Agreement ADN 952011 with the State of Alaska's Division of Homeland Security & Emergency Management (a division of the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs). Some research in this publication is sponsored by the Cooperative Institute for Alaska Research with funds from NOAA under cooperative agreement NA08OAR4320751 with the University of Alaska Fairbanks. We thank Lander Ver Hoef for his help with the RTK GPS survey in Cold Bay and King Cove. Numerical calculations for this work were supported by a grant of High Performance Computing (HPC) resources from the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center (ARSC) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. We thank Alyssa Pampell Manis for her detailed review that helped improve the report, and also an anonymous reviewer for a number of insightful comments and suggestions. Data_Quality_Information: Attribute_Accuracy: Attribute_Accuracy_Report: The maps showing the results of our modeling have been completed using the best information available and are believed to be accurate, however, their preparation required many assumptions. We described several scenarios and provide an estimate of maximum credible tsunami inundation. Actual conditions during a tsunami event may vary from those considered, so the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The limits of inundation shown should be used only as a guideline for emergency planning and response action. Actual areas inundated will depend on specifics of the earth deformations, on-land construction, and tide level, and they may differ from areas shown on the map. The information on this map is intended to provide a basis for state and local agencies to plan emergency evacuation and tsunami response actions in the event of a major tsunamigenic earthquake. These results are not intended for land-use regulation or building-code development. This DGGS Report of Investigations is a final report of scientific research. It has received technical review by several scientists familiar with the subject matter. Uncertainties associated with the depiction or interpretation of various features are discussed in the manuscript. Logical_Consistency_Report: Model validation for this report included comparison of the modeled results to observations that were recorded during historic events. Completeness_Report: The results of our modeling have been completed using the best information available and are believed to be accurate; however, their preparation required many assumptions and actual conditions during a tsunami event may vary from those considered. Positional_Accuracy: Horizontal_Positional_Accuracy: Horizontal_Positional_Accuracy_Report: The hydrodynamic model used to calculate propagation and runup of tsunami waves is a nonlinear, flux-formulated, shallow-water model. It passes the validation and verification tests required for models used in production of tsunami inundation maps. The source mechanism remains the biggest unknown in the problem of tsunami modeling. Since the initial condition for the modeling is determined by the displacement of the ocean bottom, the largest source of error is the earthquake model. When the tsunami is generated in the vicinity of the coast, the direction of the incoming waves, their amplitudes and times of arrival are determined by the initial displacements of the ocean surface in the source area because the distance to the shore is too small for the waves to dissipate. Therefore, the near-field inundation modeling results are especially sensitive to the fine structure of the tsunami source. The modeling process is highly sensitive to errors when the complexity of the source function is combined with its proximity to the coastal zone. Additionally, during development of tsunami inundation maps a spatially-averaged ground subsidence/uplift model is assumed. However, during a potential earthquake, soil compaction in areas of unconsolidated deposits in the coastal zone might occur, and tsunami inundation could extend farther landward. Finally, we mention that the horizontal resolution of the highest resolution grid that was used for inundation modeling is about 16 m (53 ft). This resolution is high enough to describe major relief features, but small topographic features, buildings, and other facilities cannot be resolved accurately by the existing model. Vertical_Positional_Accuracy: Vertical_Positional_Accuracy_Report: The vertical accuracy of the inundation modeling is dependent on the accuracy and resolution of the digital elevation models (DEMs) and tidal datum values that were used to compile the computational grid. Prior to scenario modeling, bathymetric data were shifted to use Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) as the vertical datum. The depths of inundation shown should be used only as a guideline for emergency planning and response action. Actual inundation water depth will depend on specifics of the earth deformations, on-land construction, and tide level, and they may differ from areas shown by this data. The information is intended to permit state and local agencies to plan emergency evacuation and tsunami response actions in the event of a major tsunamigenic earthquake. These results are not intended for land-use regulation or building-code development. For additional information please reference the Grid Development and Data Sources section of the associated manuscript. Lineage: Process_Step: Process_Description: Development of nested grids - To support inundation modeling of coastal areas in Alaska, we used a series of nested telescoping grids, or digital elevation models (DEMs), as input layers for tsunami inundation modeling and mapping. These grids of increasing resolution allowed us to propagate waves generated by various sources to Cold Bay and King Cove, Alaska. In order to propagate a wave from its source to various coastal locations we used embedded grids, placing a large, coarse grid in deep water and coupling it with smaller, finer grids in shallow water areas. The bathymetric and topographic relief in each nested grid is based on digital elevation models (DEMs) developed at the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in Boulder, Colorado. The extent of each grid used for our tsunami inundation mapping is listed in the accompanying report. To provide greater DEM accuracy near the shorelines, we augmented the topographic datasets with RTK - GPS survey measurements. Survey measurements were converted to MHHW datum using methods described within the associated report. See Methodology and Data section of the accompanying report for more detail and additional grid development source information. Process_Date: 2015 Process_Step: Process_Description: Model validation - The numerical model that we used for simulation of tsunami wave propagation and runup was validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory data. The model solves nonlinear shallow water equations using a finite-difference method on a staggered grid. See the accompanying report for more detail and additional model information. Process_Date: 2015 Process_Step: Process_Description: Model verification - We verified the numerical model by comparing results of the inundation modeling with observations collected from the March 11, 2011, Tohoku earthquake tsunami. First, we simulated the tsunami in Cold Bay and King Cove, Alaska using an output of a coseismic deformation model of each of the earthquake as an initial condition for water waves. Then we compared the modeled inundation zones with the observed extent of inundation. See the accompanying report for more detail and additional modeling information. Process_Date: 2015 Process_Step: Process_Description: Numerical simulations of hypothetical tsunami scenarios - We assessed hazard related to tectonic tsunamis in Cold Bay and King Cove, Alaska by performing model simulations for each hypothetical source scenario. Numerical results for each scenario include extent of inundation, sea level and velocity time series calculations, and tsunami flow depth. See the accompanying report for more detail and additional information. Process_Date: 2015 Process_Step: Process_Description: Compilation of maximum inundation zone and maximum flow depths - We calculated maximum composite extent of inundation by combining the maximum calculated inundation extents of all scenarios. The same method was used for calculation of maximum flow depths over dry land. See the accompanying report for more detail and additional information. Process_Date: 2015 Process_Step: Process_Description: Calculation of the potential inundation lines - For each grid cell in the high-resolution DEMs Cold Bay and King Cove, Alaska, we determined whether the cell was inundated by waves or stayed dry throughout the entire simulation. Then, we defined a function such that it is equal to one at the center of each wet cell and is negative one at the center of each dry cell. Using a linear interpolation algorithm in Matlab, we plotted a zero-value contour that delineates dry and wet cells from each other. The resultant contour line (or a collection of lines if the contour is not a simply connected) was directly exported to the ArcGIS using WGS84 datum. Process_Date: 2015 Spatial_Data_Organization_Information: Direct_Spatial_Reference_Method: vector Spatial_Reference_Information: Horizontal_Coordinate_System_Definition: Geographic: Latitude_Resolution: .000001 Longitude_Resolution: .000001 Geographic_Coordinate_Units: decimal degrees Geodetic_Model: Horizontal_Datum_Name: World Geodetic System of 1984 Ellipsoid_Name: WGS 84 Semi-major_Axis: 6378137 Denominator_of_Flattening_Ratio: 298.257223563 Vertical_Coordinate_System_Definition: Depth_System_Definition: Depth_Datum_Name: Mean Higher High Water Depth_Resolution: 1 Depth_Distance_Units: meter Depth_Encoding_Method: Attribute values Entity_and_Attribute_Information: Detailed_Description: Entity_Type: Entity_Type_Label: ri2016-1-border Entity_Type_Definition: Outline of the study area. File format: shapefile Entity_Type_Definition_Source: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (DGGS) and Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Entity_Attribute_Layer_Name: border Detailed_Description: Entity_Type: Entity_Type_Label: ri2016-1-max-flow-depth-kingcove, ri2016-1-max-flow-depth-coldbay Entity_Type_Definition: Raster images depicting maximum composite flow depths over dry land. Pixel values provide the modeled depth (in meters) of maximum inundation. For each grid point, the pixel value provides the modeled depth of water (in meters) over previously dry land, representing the maximum depth value of all calculated tsunami scenarios. File format: GeoTIFF Entity_Type_Definition_Source: Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report Entity_Attribute_Layer_Name: max-flow-depth Detailed_Description: Entity_Type: Entity_Type_Label: ri2016-1-max-inundation-line-kingcove, ri2016-1-max-inundation-line-coldbay Entity_Type_Definition: Estimated, "maximum credible scenario" inundation line(s) that encompasses the maximum extent of flooding based on model simulation of all credible source scenarios and historical observations. The "maximum credible scenario" inundation lines are intended to be utilized as a basis for local tsunami hazard planning and development of evacuation maps. File format: shapefile Entity_Type_Definition_Source: Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report Entity_Attribute_Layer_Name: max-inundation-line Detailed_Description: Entity_Type: Entity_Type_Label: ri2016-1-scenarios-kingcove, ri2016-1-scenarios-coldbay Entity_Type_Definition: Collection of shapefiles that depict the modeled potential maximum inundation by tectonic waves for each modeled scenario. Detailed information about each scenario can be found in the accompanying report. File format: shapefile Entity_Type_Definition_Source: Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report Entity_Attribute_Layer_Name: scenarios Detailed_Description: Entity_Type: Entity_Type_Label: ri2016-1-time-series-points-kingcove, ri2016-1-time-series-points-coldbay Entity_Type_Definition: To help emergency management personnel assess tsunami hazards, we supplement the inundation maps with the time series plots of the modeled water level and velocity dynamics at some on-land and some offshore locations in the communities. The plots are provided in the appendices of the report. These shapefiles provide the location of each time series point. File format: shapefile Entity_Type_Definition_Source: Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report Entity_Attribute_Layer_Name: time-series-points Attribute: Attribute_Label: Number Attribute_Definition: Numbers correspond to labeled points and graphs shown in the accompanying report. Attribute_Definition_Source: this report Attribute_Domain_Values: Unrepresentable_Domain: Appendices A and B Attribute: Attribute_Label: Label Attribute_Definition: Labels correspond to titles of graphs shown in the accompanying report. Attribute_Definition_Source: this report Attribute_Domain_Values: Unrepresentable_Domain: Appendices A and B Distribution_Information: Distributor: Contact_Information: Contact_Organization_Primary: Contact_Organization: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Contact_Address: Address_Type: mailing and physical Address: 3354 College Road City: Fairbanks State_or_Province: AK Postal_Code: 99709-3707 Country: USA Contact_Voice_Telephone: (907)451-5020 Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: (907)451-5050 Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: dggspubs@alaska.gov Hours_of_Service: 8 am to 4:30 pm, Monday through Friday, except State holidays Contact_Instructions: Please view our website (http://www.dggs.alaska.gov) for the latest information on available data. Please contact us using the e-mail address provided above when possible. 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