Tsunami inundation maps for Juneau, Alaska

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What does this data set describe?

Title: Tsunami inundation maps for Juneau, Alaska
Abstract:
In this report, we evaluate potential tsunami hazards for the southeastern Alaska community of Juneau and numerically model the extent of inundation from tsunami waves generated by tectonic and submarine landslide sources. We calibrate our tsunami model by numerically simulating the 2011 Tohoku tsunami at Juneau and comparing our results to instrument records. Analysis of calculated and observed water level dynamics for the 2011 event in Juneau reveals that the model underestimates the observed wave heights in the city by a factor of two, likely due to complex tsunami-tide interactions. We compensate for this numerical underestimation by doubling the coseismic slip of the hypothetical tsunami sources in our models. Potential hypothetical maximum credible tsunami sources include variations of the extended 1964 rupture and megathrust earthquakes in the Prince William Sound and Alaska Peninsula regions. Local underwater landslide events in Lynn Canal, in Favorite, Saginaw, and Gastineau channels, and in Taku Inlet are also considered as possible tsunamigenic scenarios. The results show that the maximum predicted wave height in the Juneau area resulting from a tectonic tsunami is 2-3 m (6-10 ft), while a landslide-generated tsunami may cause a run-up of 15-16 m (49-52 ft) along the Fritz Cove shoreline and potentially flood portions of the airport. Results presented here are intended to provide guidance to local emergency management agencies in tsunami inundation assessment, evacuation planning, and public education to mitigate future tsunami hazards.
Supplemental_Information:
composite-landslide: Maximum inundation extent and flow depth derived from compositing landslide model scenarios 8-13. For each grid point, the pixel value provides the modeled depth of water (in meters) 
composite-landslide-tectonic: Maximum inundation extent and flow depth derived from compositing all landslide and tectonic scenarios (1-13). 
max-tectonic-inundation: Maximum inundation extent, wave height above MHHW, and flow depth derived from scenario 4D, which is considered the worst-case geologically credible tectonic tsunami scenario. Scenario 4D is based on a Mw 9.2 Tohoku-type earthquake in the Alaska-Aleutian plate interface. It combines rupture of the 1964 and the YY segments. The extension "D" stands for "doubled" to indicate that this model includes coseismic slip adjustments used to account for underestimation of the tsunami height in numerical modeling of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. 
tectonic-inundation-scenario-1d: Inundation extent, wave height above MHHW, and flow depth derived from scenario 1D, a repeat of the 1964 Mw 9.2 Alaska Earthquake. The extension "D" stands for "doubled" to indicate that this model includes coseismic slip adjustments used to account for underestimation of the tsunami height in numerical modeling of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. 
tectonic-inundation-scenario-4: Inundation extent, wave height above MHHW, and flow depth derived from scenario 4. Scenario 4 is based on a Mw 9.2 Tohoku-type earthquake in the Alaska-Aleutian plate interface. It combines rupture of the 1964 and the YY segments. 
time-series-points: To help emergency management personnel assess tsunami hazards, we supplement the inundation maps with the time series plots of the modeled water level and velocity dynamics at some on-land and some offshore locations in the communities. The plots are provided in the appendices of the report. These shapefiles provide the location of each time series point.
  1. How should this data set be cited?

    Nicolsky, D.J., Suleimani, E.N., Koehler, R.D., and Salisbury, J.B., 2017, Tsunami inundation maps for Juneau, Alaska: Report of Investigation RI 2017-9, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details: 66 p., 5 sheets

  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?

    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -135.010247
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -134.150000
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 58.690222
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 58.180000

  3. What does it look like?

  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?

    Beginning_Date: 2011
    Ending_Date: 2017
    Currentness_Reference: publication date

  5. What is the general form of this data set?

    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: report and digital data

  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?

    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?

      This is a vector data set.

    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?

      Horizontal positions are specified in geographic coordinates, that is, latitude and longitude. Latitudes are given to the nearest .000001. Longitudes are given to the nearest .000001. Latitude and longitude values are specified in decimal degrees.

      The horizontal datum used is World Geodetic System of 1984.
      The ellipsoid used is WGS 84.
      The semi-major axis of the ellipsoid used is 6378137.
      The flattening of the ellipsoid used is 1/298.257223563000025.

      Vertical_Coordinate_System_Definition:
      Depth_System_Definition:
      Depth_Datum_Name: Mean Higher High Water
      Depth_Resolution: 1
      Depth_Distance_Units: meter
      Depth_Encoding_Method: Attribute values

  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?

    ri2017-9-composite-landslide
    Maximum inundation extent and flow depth derived from compositing landslide model scenarios 8-13. For each grid point, the pixel value provides the modeled depth of water (in meters) File format: GeoTIFF and shapefile (Source: Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report)

    ri2017-9-composite-landslide-tectonic
    Maximum inundation extent and flow depth derived from compositing all landslide and tectonic scenarios (1-13). File format: GeoTIFF and shapefile (Source: Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report)

    ri2017-9-max-tectonic-inundation
    Maximum inundation extent, wave height above MHHW, and flow depth derived from scenario 4D, which is considered the worst-case geologically credible tectonic tsunami scenario. Scenario 4D is based on a Mw 9.2 Tohoku-type earthquake in the Alaska-Aleutian plate interface. It combines rupture of the 1964 and the YY segments. The extension "D" stands for "doubled" to indicate that this model includes coseismic slip adjustments used to account for underestimation of the tsunami height in numerical modeling of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. File format: GeoTIFF and shapefile (Source: Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report)

    ri2017-9-tectonic-inundation-scenario-1d
    Inundation extent, wave height above MHHW, and flow depth derived from scenario 1D, a repeat of the 1964 Mw 9.2 Alaska Earthquake. The extension "D" stands for "doubled" to indicate that this model includes coseismic slip adjustments used to account for underestimation of the tsunami height in numerical modeling of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. File format: GeoTIFF and shapefile (Source: Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report)

    ri2017-9-tectonic-inundation-scenario-4
    Inundation extent, wave height above MHHW, and flow depth derived from scenario 4. Scenario 4 is based on a Mw 9.2 Tohoku-type earthquake in the Alaska-Aleutian plate interface. It combines rupture of the 1964 and the YY segments. File format: GeoTIFF and shapefile (Source: Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report)

    ri2017-9-time-series-points
    To help emergency management personnel assess tsunami hazards, we supplement the inundation maps with the time series plots of the modeled water level and velocity dynamics at some on-land and some offshore locations in the communities. The plots are provided in the appendices of the report. These shapefiles provide the location of each time series point. File format: shapefile (Source: Alaska Earthquake Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, this report)

    ID
    Numbers correspond to labeled points and graphs shown in the accompanying report. (Source: this report)

    Figures A-2 through A-4

    Name
    Values correspond to graphs shown in the accompanying report. (Source: this report)

    Figures A-2 through A-4


Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)

  2. Who also contributed to the data set?

    This report was funded by Award NA15NWS4670027 by a National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program grant to Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management and University of Alaska Fairbanks from the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This does not constitute an endorsement by NOAA. Numerical calculations for this work were supported by High Performance Computing (HPC) resources at the Research Computing Systems unit at the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks. We are grateful to Kenneth Macpherson for his help with the RTK GPS survey in Juneau. Thoughtful reviews by Finn Lovholt (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo) and James Beget (University of Alaska Fairbanks) improved the report.

  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?

    Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys
    Metadata Manager
    3354 College Road
    Fairbanks, AK 99709-3707
    USA

    (907)451-5039 (voice)
    (907)451-5050 (FAX)
    dggspubs@alaska.gov

    Hours_of_Service: 8 am to 4:30 pm, Monday through Friday, except State holidays


Why was the data set created?

Results presented here are intended to provide guidance to local emergency management agencies in tsunami inundation assessment, evacuation planning, and public education to mitigate future tsunami hazards.


How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?

  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?

    Date: 2011 (process 1 of 6)
    Development of nested grids - To support inundation modeling of coastal areas in Alaska, we used a series of nested telescoping grids, or digital elevation models (DEMs), as input layers for tsunami inundation modeling and mapping. These grids of increasing resolution allowed us to propagate waves generated by various sources to Juneau. In order to propagate a wave from its source to various coastal locations, we used embedded grids, placing a large, coarse grid in deep water and coupling it with smaller, finer grids in shallow water areas. The bathymetric and topographic relief in each nested grid is based on digital elevation models (DEMs) developed at the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in Boulder, Colorado. The extent of each grid used for our tsunami inundation mapping is listed in the accompanying report. To provide greater DEM accuracy near the shorelines, we augmented the topographic datasets with the recently developed USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED) that is based on Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) surveys collected in 2013 and a real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS survey in the harbor and airport areas. Survey measurements were converted to MHHW datum using methods described within the associated report. See Methodology and Data section of the accompanying report for more detail and additional grid development source information.

    Date: 2011 (process 2 of 6)
    Model validation - The numerical model that we used for simulation of tsunami wave propagation and runup was validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory data. The model solves water equations using a finite-difference method on a staggered grid. See the accompanying report for more detail and additional model information.

    Date: 2016 (process 3 of 6)
    Model verification - To estimate tsunami propagation and runup in the Juneau area, we verify our model against the observed tsunami generated by the March 11, 2011, Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan.

    Date: 2016 (process 4 of 6)
    Numerical simulations of hypothetical tsunami scenarios - We assessed hazard related to tectonic tsunamis in Juneau by performing model simulations for each hypothetical source scenario. Numerical results for each scenario include extent of inundation, sea level and velocity time series calculations, tsunami flow depth over land, and the maximum water level above the MHHW tide level offshore and within the potential inundation area. We create raster files of model results. For each grid point, the pixel value provides the modeled depth of water (in meters). See the accompanying report for more detail and additional information.

    Date: 2017 (process 5 of 6)
    Calculation of the potential inundation lines - For each grid cell in the high-resolution DEMs Juneau, we determined whether the cell was inundated by waves or stayed dry throughout the entire simulation. Then, we defined a function such that it is equal to one at the center of each wet cell and is negative one at the center of each dry cell. Using a linear interpolation algorithm in Matlab, we plotted a zero-value contour that delineates dry and wet cells from each other. The resultant contour line (or a collection of lines if the contour is not a simply connected) was directly exported to the ArcGIS using WGS84 datum.

    Date: 2017 (process 6 of 6)
    Compilation of composite maximum inundation zone, flow depths over land, and water level above the MHHW tide level offshore and within the potential inundation area - We interpret the maximum, geologically credible, worst case scenario by combining the maximum calculated inundation of all scenarios. See the accompanying report for more detail and additional information.

  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?

    Newell, J.T., Maurits, S.A., Suleimani, E.N., Koehler, R.D., and Nicolsky, D.J., 2015, Tsunami inundation maps for Alaska communities: Digital Data Series DDS 10, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States.

    Online Links:

    Suleimani, E.N., Nicolsky, D.J., and Koehler, R.D., 2013, Tsunami inundation maps of Sitka, Alaska: Report of Investigation RI 2013-3, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details: 76 p., 1 sheet, scale 1:12,500
    Suleimani, E.N., Nicolsky, D.J., and Koehler, R.D., 2015, Tsunami inundation maps of Elfin Cove, Gustavus, and Hoonah, Alaska: Report of Investigation RI 2015-1, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details: 79 p., 3 sheets
    Suleimani, E.N., Nicolsky, D.J., and Koehler, R.D., 2016, Tsunami inundation maps for Yakutat, Alaska: Report of Investigation RI 2016-2, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details: 47 p., 1 sheet, scale 1:10,000


How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?

    The maps showing the results of our modeling have been completed using the best information available and are believed to be accurate, however, their preparation required many assumptions. We described several scenarios and provide an estimate of maximum credible tsunami inundation. Actual conditions during a tsunami event may vary from those considered, so the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The limits of inundation shown should be used only as a guideline for emergency planning and response action. Actual areas inundated will depend on specifics of the earth deformations, on-land construction, and tide level, and they may differ from areas shown on the map. The information on this map is intended to provide a basis for state and local agencies to plan emergency evacuation and tsunami response actions in the event of a major tsunamigenic earthquake. These results are not intended for land-use regulation or building-code development. This DGGS Report of Investigations is a final report of scientific research. Several scientists familiar with the subject matter provided technical reviews. Uncertainties associated with the depiction or interpretation of various features are discussed in the manuscript.

  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?

    The hydrodynamic model used to calculate propagation and runup of tsunami waves is a nonlinear, flux-formulated, shallow-water model that has passed the validation and verification tests required for models used in the production of tsunami inundation maps. Further details about the limitations of the employed modeling approach are described in earlier reports by Suleimani and others and by Nicolsky and others, as well as in NTHMP (2012) guidelines. The accuracy of the later waves is limited by the accuracies of the bathymetry and coastline that are outside the extent of the high-resolution DEM but still impact the modeling. Finally, we mention that the horizontal resolution of the highest resolution grid that was used for inundation modeling is about 16 m (53 ft). This resolution is high enough to describe major relief features, but small topographic features, buildings, and other facilities cannot be resolved accurately by the existing model. In addition to the uncertainty related to the grid cell elevation/depth, uncertainties in the tsunami source (earthquake and landslide geometry) are the largest sources of error in tsunami modeling efforts. The direction of the incoming waves, their amplitudes, and times of arrival are primarily determined by displacements of the ocean surface in the source area. Therefore, the inundation modeling results for local landslide sources are especially sensitive to the slide volume, its initial position, and acceleration. The modeling process is highly sensitive to errors when the complexity of the source function is combined with its proximity to the coastal zone. Another important source of uncertainty related to the under-prediction of the tsunami observations near Juneau is attributed to the tsunami-tide interactions, but other physical mechanisms could also play a role. For additional information please reference the sources of errors and uncertainties section of the associated manuscript.

  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?

    The vertical accuracy of the inundation modeling is dependent on the accuracy and resolution of the digital elevation models (DEMs) and tidal datum values that were used to compile the computational grid. We provide additional details about DEM and grid development in the accompanying report. Prior to scenario modeling, bathymetric data were shifted to use Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) as the vertical datum. The depths of inundation shown should be used only as a guideline for emergency planning and response action. Actual inundation water depth will depend on specifics of the earth deformations, on-land construction, and tide level, and they may differ from areas shown by this data. The information is intended to permit state and local agencies to plan emergency evacuation and tsunami response actions in the event of a major tsunamigenic earthquake. These results are not intended for land-use regulation or building-code development. For additional information please reference the sources of errors and uncertainties section of the associated manuscript.

  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?

    The results of our modeling have been completed using the best information available and are believed to be accurate; however, their preparation required many assumptions and actual conditions during a tsunami event may vary from those considered.

  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?

    Model validation for this report included comparison of the modeled results to observations that were recorded during historic events.


How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?

Access_Constraints:
This report, map, and/or dataset is available directly from the State of Alaska, Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (see contact information below).
Use_Constraints:
This dataset includes results of numerical modeling of earthquake-generated tsunami waves for a specific community. Modeling was completed using the best information and tsunami modeling software available at the time of analysis. They are numerical solutions and, while they are believed to be accurate, their ultimate accuracy during an actual tsunami will depend on the specifics of earth deformations, on-land construction, tide level, and other parameters at the time of the tsunami. Actual areas of inundation may differ from areas shown in this dataset. Landslide tsunami sources may not be included in the modeling due to unknown potential impact of such events on a given community; please refer to accompanying report for more information on tsunami sources used for this study. The limits of inundation shown should only be used as a general guideline for emergency planning and response action in the event of a major tsunamigenic earthquake. These results are not intended for any other use, including land-use regulation or actuarial purposes. Any hard copies or published datasets utilizing these datasets shall clearly indicate their source. If the user has modified the data in any way, the user is obligated to describe the types of modifications the user has made. The user specifically agrees not to misrepresent these datasets, nor to imply that changes made by the user were approved by the State of Alaska, Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys. The State of Alaska makes no express or implied warranties (including warranties for merchantability and fitness) with respect to the character, functions, or capabilities of the electronic data or products or their appropriateness for any user's purposes. In no event will the State of Alaska be liable for any incidental, indirect, special, consequential, or other damages suffered by the user or any other person or entity whether from the use of the electronic services or products or any failure thereof or otherwise. In no event will the State of Alaska's liability to the Requestor or anyone else exceed the fee paid for the electronic service or product.

  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)

    Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys
    Metadata Manager
    3354 College Road
    Fairbanks, AK 99709-3707
    USA

    (907)451-5039 (voice)
    (907)451-5050 (FAX)
    dggspubs@alaska.gov

    Hours_of_Service: 8 am to 4:30 pm, Monday through Friday, except State holidays
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set?

    RI 2017-9

  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?

    The State of Alaska makes no expressed or implied warranties (including warranties for merchantability and fitness) with respect to the character, functions, or capabilities of the electronic data or products or their appropriateness for any user's purposes. In no event will the State of Alaska be liable for any incidental, indirect, special, consequential, or other damages suffered by the user or any other person or entity whether from the use of the electronic services or products or any failure thereof or otherwise. In no event will the State of Alaska's liability to the Requestor or anyone else exceed the fee paid for the electronic service or product.

  4. How can I download or order the data?


Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 27-Sep-2017
Metadata author:
Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys
Metadata Manager
3354 College Road
Fairbanks, AK 99709-3707
USA

(907)451-5039 (voice)
(907)451-5050 (FAX)
dggspubs@alaska.gov

Hours_of_Service: 8 am to 4:30 pm, Monday through Friday, except State holidays
Metadata standard:
FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)
Metadata extensions used:


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