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Rocha Legorreta, F.J., 2004

Risking basin analysis: Procedures, methods, and case studies in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, and the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico

Bibliographic Reference

Rocha Legorreta, F.J., 2004, Risking basin analysis: Procedures, methods, and case studies in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, and the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico: Columbia, South Carolina, University of South Carolina, Ph.D. dissertation, 262 p., illust., maps.


Integrated basin analysis was conducted using a state-of-the-art code developed for Excel, interfacing with the Monte Carlo risking program Crystal Ball® with the purpose to perform a total uncertainty analysis that can be done with as many uncertain inputs as required and as many outputs of interest as needed without increasing the computer time involved. Two main examples using the code are described: the first one uses synthetic information and the second example uses real but minimal information from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) Area 1002 (undeformed area Brookian Sequence), Alaska, USA. In both examples, the code serves to identify which parameters in the input (ranging from uncertain data, uncertain thermal history, uncertain permeability, uncertain fracture coefficients for rocks, uncertain geochemistry kinetics, uncertain kerogen amounts and types per formation, through to uncertain volumetric factors) are causing the greatest contributions to the uncertainty in any of the selected outputs. Relative importance, relative contribution and relative sensitivity are examined to illustrate when individual parameters need to have their ranges of uncertainty narrowed in order to reduce the range of uncertainty of particular outputs. Relevant results from the ANWR case of study revealed that forecasts for oil available charge gave around 2.3 Bbbl; for gas the maximum charge available reached is 46 B m3. These ranges, in comparison with previous assessments, are quite different due to the group of variables used being influenced basically by the input data, the equation parameter and intrinsic assumptions. As part of the future research, the third section of this work describes the actual and future prospective areas for gas in the Mexican Basins. The main point here is to identify the advances and the important role of the Mexican gas industry as part of a future strategic investment opportunity.

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